2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson: Best Outright Bets, Long Shot Picks

The 2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson begins on Thursday, May 2, at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. TPC Craig Ranch stretches a whopping 7,414 yards but is one of the easiest courses featured on the PGA Tour. The winning score has eclipsed 23-under each of the three years the course has hosted the tournament. TPC Craig Ranch features the eighth-widest fairways and 14th-largest green complexes on Tour, offering little defense when the Texas winds aren't gusting.

The 156-player field this week doesn't have much star power but features a few notable Dallas residents, headlined by Jordan Spieth, Si Woo Kim, and Tom Kim. Defending champion Jason Day, Adam Scott, Sungjae Im, and Min Woo Lee are some other noteworthy players teeing it up at TPC Craig Ranch.

Last time, Jason Day fired a 9-under 62 on Sunday to defeat Austin Eckroat and Si Woo Kim by one shot for his first PGA Tour win in over five years. Day carded a clutch birdie at the par-5 18th to grab the clubhouse lead after being tied with Kim. Eckroat was in the final pairing with 54-hole leader Marty Dou and couldn't make an eagle at the last hole to tie Day at 23-under.

Let's get into my favorite plays this week at TPC Craig Ranch!

FAVORITE BETS

Stephan Jaeger (+3500 BetRivers Enhanced)

I was on Jaeger when he picked up his maiden PGA Tour victory one month ago at the Houston Open, as Memorial Park felt like a perfect setup for him to mash away with the driver on almost every hole. I get similar vibes from TPC Craig Ranch this week, as it's a driver-heavy track with wide-open fairways and little penalty found from tee to green. I'm not surprised the 34-year-old German finished T11 here last year.

Since picking up his win in Houston, Jaeger missed the cut at the Masters and placed T18 two weeks ago at the RBC Heritage. While the underlying numbers don't look promising -- he lost strokes on his approach shots and with the putter at Augusta and Hilton Head -- he still ranks fifth in my model this week and is a much better course fit at TPC Craig Ranch. Jaeger is second in SG: Long Courses, third in Par-4s: 450-500 Yards, tenth in Driving Distance, 12th in Birdie or Better Percentage, 15th in SG: Tee To Green, 18th in Par-5s: 550-600 Yards, and 31st in SG: Total among all players in the field over the past 24 rounds.

While Jaeger's Achilles heel for most of the season has been with the flat stick, one reason why I was so high on his chances in Houston is because he's quietly putted well throughout his PGA Tour career in Texas. In fact, Jaeger has now gained over three strokes putting in each of his last four starts in the Lone Star State dating back to the 2022 Houston Open. For whatever reason, the Chattanooga, Tennessee native seems comfortable on the greens in Texas, and it's promising to see he gained 4.38 strokes putting en route to his T11 at this track just one year ago.

Nabbing two wins in a one-month span is a mighty ask, but I can't ignore all the reasons that led me to Jaeger in Houston feeling prevalent again this week in Dallas. TPC Craig Ranch should be an ideal setup with his new bombs-away style from off the tee, and if the putter cooperates, he's capable of going low enough to win this birdie fest.

Keith Mitchell (+4500 BetRivers Enhanced)

Mitchell has been knocking on the door all season long, with six top-20s and only two missed cuts in 12 starts. The 32-year-old former Georgia Bulldog has quietly been one of the best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour this year, as he's gained strokes off the tee in all 12 outings and hasn't lost strokes with his approach shots since Pebble Beach in early February.

Mitchell has always been one of the premier drivers on Tour, but he's currently in the midst of one of his best runs with his irons of his career. Among all players in the field this week, 'Cashmere Keith' ranks first in SG: Tee To Green, fifth in SG: Approach, and 11th in SG: Total over the past 24 rounds. He also ranks 11th in SG: Approach for the season and 15th in Proximity from over 200 yards. With numerous long-iron shots required into the greens at TPC Craig Ranch, Mitchell should be able to take advantage and stick his approaches closer than his competition.

While being a long driver from off the tee isn't a prerequisite to victory on this course, it certainly never hurts, and Mitchell can bomb it further than most. The Sea Island, Georgia native ranks 14th in Driving Distance over the past 24 rounds and will be able to utilize his best weapon often and without much concern at TPC Craig Ranch.

As it's been for most of his time on Tour, the putter remains a roller-coaster ride for Mitchell in 2024. He's only gained strokes on the greens in consecutive weeks once, and that came back in January at The American Express and Farmers Insurance Open. However, he did gain over 2.5 strokes putting en route to a T26 here in 2021 and narrowly lost strokes in his most recent trip to McKinney in 2022. Mitchell has also gained strokes in his last two appearances at the Valero Texas Open and popped for 1.4 strokes on the greens at the 2022 Houston Open. If he can find a way to gain a stroke or two with the flat stick this week, I expect his sharp tee-to-green game to have him in the mix over the weekend.

LONG SHOT PICKS

Justin Lower (+9000 BetRivers Enhanced)

Lower has been on an excellent run lately, with four consecutive top-30 finishes as he enters the Dallas area this week. Just two weeks ago, Lower got a taste of being in contention on Sunday at the Corales Puntacana Championship, and I think that experience en route to a T4 result will bode well for him moving forward.

Despite coming in at near 100/1 odds, Lower ranked 12th in my model this week, ahead of notables like Si Woo Kim, Jason Day, Byeong Hun An, and Tom Kim. The 35-year-old is 14th in Proximity on the PGA Tour this season and ranks 16th in Proximity from 175-200 Yards, 18th in SG: Total and 22nd in Birdie or Better Percentage among all players in the field over the past 24 rounds.

When taking a look at a shorter sample size, Lower's recent form pops out even more. The 35-year-old Uniontown, Ohio native ranks 17th in SG: Approach over the past 12 rounds and fifth in SG: Putting during that same time span. Lower is also second in the field in SG: Putting on Bentgrass surfaces in the last two years, suggesting he's plenty capable of taking down a putting contest this week.

While he's yet to finish inside the top 40 in two trips to McKinney, Lower has made the cut in both his starts at this course and gained over four strokes with his irons on both occasions. He also finished T3 at the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta in late February and T28 at the Houston Open one month ago. Both those courses are similar to the layout featured this week at TPC Craig Ranch, and with his game seemingly in form at the moment, I don't think it's crazy to envision Lower having a crack at his first PGA Tour win on Sunday.

Kevin Tway (+20000 FanDuel)

Tway appears to have found something with his game over the past six months, as he's now recorded back-to-back top-11s and has five top-40s in eight starts worldwide dating back to the RSM Classic in November.

The only win of Tway's PGA Tour career came back at the 2018 Safeway Open, but he's had multiple close calls over the years down in Texas. His best finish of the entire 2022-23 season was a T11 here at TPC Craig Ranch, and he played in the penultimate group en route to a T2 at the 2021 Houston Open. Tway also finished T3 at the 2017 Valero Texas Open, T5 at the 2018 Charles Schwab Challenge, and T9 at the Byron Nelson in in 2018 when it was played at Trinity Forest.

Without any measured statistics in four of his past five outings, it's tricky to parse through how Tway has been able to get his name back into the fold lately. However, it's apparent that he's still capable of making birdies in bunches, as seen by reaching 19-under at Corales two weeks ago and 20-under last week at the Zurich Classic with teammate Kelly Kraft.

With much-improved form during the past half year and sturdy history throughout his career in Texas AND at TPC Craig Ranch, 200/1 odds were juicy enough to get me rooting for 'Tway Day' on Sunday.

*All statistics from the PGA Tour website or RickRunGood.com*